What Mortgage Rates Falling Below 6% Would Really Mean for Homebuyers

So what have would-be home buyers been waiting for for much of the past two years? Recent projections released by Fannie Mae and the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) suggest that it may not be far away—and it could be the spark many prospective buyers have been waiting for.

Why 6% Matters

NAR analysts believe a 30-year fixed mortgage at 6% would place the median-priced home within financial reach of an additional 5.5 million households, or about 1.6 million renters. About 10 percent of those newly eligible households — or roughly 550,000 families — would be expected to purchase within the first 12 to 18 months.

That could increase home sales by up to 14% if rates remain at around that level in 2026.

Actual Savings From Minor Rate Moves

On first blush, a shift from 6.34 percent to 6 percent may not sound dramatic. But the savings add up:

Current rate (6.34 percent) — A buyer of a median-priced $425,000 home with 20 percent down would pay about $2,122 per month and over 30 years a total of $763,776.

At 6% – Monthly payments drop to $2,038 for a total of $733,788 over a 30-year term. You just saved almost $30,000.

At 5.9% – Payments fall to $2,011 for your lifetime cost of the loan: $724,000 — nearly a savings of $40,000 from prevailing 6.34%.

A few tenths of a percentage point below 6% can help save tens of thousands of dollars in interest over the life of a mortgage.

Rates Under 6% Soon?

Morgage rates have been trending lower since they reached 7.79% in October, 2023. As of the beginning of October 2025, that rate is about 6.34%.

But the road ahead may be bumpy, according to forecasts:

Fannie Mae forecasts that rates will average 6.4% by the end of 2025, conceivably slipping to 5.9% by the end of 2026.

But there are rough waters ahead, the forecast indicates:

Fannie Mae estimates 6.4% at the end of 2025, maybe dropping to 5.9% by late 2026.

Realtor.com also anticipates year-end 2025 rates to be close to 6.4%, with inflation and Federal Reserve policy continuing as primary catalysts.

Near-term volatility is likely as investors react to continuing economic reports, the government shutdown and comments from the Fed.

Where Buyers Could Benefit Most

Should rates drop to 6%, NAR projects the largest sales jumps would come in Atlanta, Dallas, Minneapolis, Cleveland and Kansas City (MO-KS)—markets where affordability issues have sidelined numerous potential buyers.

For a nation of Americans, 6% is not merely a number — it’s also a tipping point. Though a.34 percent difference may sound marginal, the long-term potential for feasible savings could rejuvenate the housing market in 2026.

For now, buyers on the sidelines should pay close attention to rates, because even a small move could alter the math of their path to homeownership.